Japan tourism market outlook 2012
Swift recovery of outbound market after Japan earthquake
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
The tourism market in Japan has been witnessing steady recovery after the earthquake in March, and it will see further improvement in 2012, both in terms of outbound as well as inbound travel.
Swift recovery of outbound market after Japan earthquake
The number of outbound travelers from Japan has been showing swift recovery since March. The impact on the outbound market is far less than the previous crises such as 9.11, SARS or Swine flu.
According to the latest figure released from Japan National Tourism Organization last week, the outbound growth for January to November 2011 was 1.2% increase compared to the same period last year. Year to date growth rate for departures already turned to positive in July and the number of outbound travelers in August recorded an 8.8% increase. ?Although the Japanese people suffered from serious psychological shock from the devastating disaster in early spring, the travel motivation has been undoubtedly strengthened rather than weakened after the quake? said Hiroshi Kurosu, senior researcher from JTB Foundation.
The post quake outbound market has been led by the young travelers, whereas the senior market has been seeing a little delay in the recovery. ?The young market suffered from long stagnation after mid-90s, but it finally came back to positive zone after the financial crisis in 2008, presumably because of the sudden rise of Japanese yen after the decade long depreciation. It?s truly encouraging to see that positive trend in young market has been fortified after the quake. It was only females which showed growth after the financial crisis, but now young male market is also growing.? said Kurosu.
2012 Outlook for outbound travel
Considering the recent market trend and the economic outlook, JTB Foundation forecasted the outbound demand for 2012 will be 17.40 million, a steady growth of 2.7%, based on a full year 2011 estimated result of 16.95 million. (Fig.3) Although the monthly growth rate in the latter half of 2011 hovered between 4%~8%, which was much higher than the forecasted growth rate for 2012, JTB Foundation foresees a slowdown in 2012 because the number of passports issued stayed in negative territory after the quake.
?The number of passports issued is one of the important leading indicators for travel demand. When the number of passports issued continues to drop, actual departures are not likely to maintain growth.? said Kurosu.
Chinese source markets are leading recovery of inbound travel
In contrast to the sound recovery of the outbound, the inbound demand to Japan marked the worst performance among past major crises. (Fig.5) There are five major source markets for Japan, namely, South Korea, China, Taiwan, US and Hong Kong. They comprise more than 70% of the total inbound arrivals. Among them, the monthly growth rates from Hong Kong, China and Taiwan were back to positive in October 2011 already. However, other major source markets have stayed in negative until the latest monthly figure from November 2011.
Regarding the outlook for 2012, China will be a leading market in the recovery. The Japanese government has gradually been easing its visa policy for China to boost the number of visitors to Japan. Although Japan lost approximately 1/4 of the Chinese arrivals in 2011, the relaxation of visa policy together with significant growth potential of the Chinese outbound market will lead to a strong recovery in 2012, surpassing the number of arrivals in 2010. Taiwan is another market which is expected to see more arrivals in 2012 than 2010. But arrivals for other major source markets will not reach the pre-quake level in 2012, although they will all show double digit growth due to the bounce back effect.
2012 Outlook for inbound travel
Based on analysis of the major source market performances, JTB Foundation is forecasting inbound arrivals in 2012 will be 7.90 million, a 26.5% increase. It will not reach the 8.61 million arrivals achieved in 2010, which was the highest ever figure. Japan will need a little more time to surpass the pre-quake arrivals.
2012 domestic travel market outlook
JTB Foundation announced the forecast for domestic travel demand in combination with the outlook for international travel. As mentioned in the outbound market forecast, the Japanese travel market has been showing good recovery. In fact, some figures both from market and industry are suggesting that for the full 2011 year, domestic travel demand may become almost flat, or possibly show a little growth, but probably not a significant decrease. This is partly due to the rise of reconstruction demand and the increase of non-holiday family travel, such as visiting parents and/or relatives living in remote areas. The disaster motivated people to strengthen the family bondage by visiting each other. In addition, holiday demand has not exhibited poor performance excluding the period immediately after the earthquake. ?People have been encouraged to go traveling after the quake. Many people have recognized again that travel is something very essential in life when they come to think about what is fundamentally important for oneself" said Kurosu.
Based on the observations of the latest performance, JTB Foundation is forecasting a 2~3% increase for domestic travel demand in 2012.
Vicky Karantzavelou - Tuesday, December 27, 20110 recommendation(s) , 21 print(s), 953 views, 0 comment(s)
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